Retail Returns Predictions January 2025

For retailers, this isn’t just a logistical nightmare; it’s expensive. Processing a return can cost businesses anywhere from $10 to $20 per item when you factor in shipping, restocking, and labor.

Add in the possibility of returned items being unsellable—damaged packaging, seasonal relevance, or just plain customer wear-and-tear—and the costs only climb higher.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. Returns also represent an opportunity. Customers returning an item aren’t necessarily walking away—they’re giving retailers a chance to wow them with great service, exchange options, or even upselling.

A seamless return process can transform a disappointed recipient into a loyal customer.

So, while we can’t stop returns from happening, we can get ahead of the trends.

Let’s break down the most likely contenders for the “Most Returned Gifts of 2024” and what retailers can learn from these missteps, from Black Friday to Christmas Eve.

AI-Powered Journals

These promised to make your journaling game smarter, but let’s be real—having AI suggest “deep thoughts” or critique your goals felt more stressful than inspiring. Back to the store they go.

Off-Brand Smart Home Devices

Budget versions of smart thermostats and security cameras were everywhere this season, but glitchy setups and unreliable features? Not the kind of “smart” anyone wanted.

Viral Cozy Blankets

You saw them all over Instagram, but the reality? They shed everywhere, didn’t fit anyone’s aesthetic, or just weren’t as magical as promised. Cute in theory, annoying in practice.

Portable Projectors

Transform your living room into a theater! Except when the picture quality is blurry, the speaker sounds like a tin can, and the setup feels like solving a puzzle. No thanks.

DIY Candle Kits

The idea of making your own candles sounded fun—until people realized how messy and complicated it was. Not everyone wants to be Martha Stewart.

Mini Espresso Machines

These gadgets promised café-quality lattes at home but ended up being messy, loud, and not delivering on that premium taste. Starbucks, here we come.

Subscription Boxes

Mystery boxes are exciting when you open them, but when half the items feel like filler junk, the excitement fades fast. Cue the cancellation emails.

Smart Fitness Mirrors

These high-tech mirrors looked futuristic, but unless the recipient specifically wanted one, they were too pricey, intimidating, and unnecessary. Back they go.

TikTok LED Light Strips

The glow-up looked cool in videos, but in reality? Not everyone wants their home to look like a nightclub. These trendy lights quickly lost their appeal.

Mass-Produced Jewelry Advent Calendars

Everyone jumped on these sparkly calendars this year, but the cheap materials and mismatched designs left many feeling disappointed. Fun for a second, regrettable after that.

Conclusion: Returns are Routine, but Aim for Fewer

Returns are part of the game, but how you handle them can define your brand’s reputation in the long run. After all, customers aren’t just returning products—they’re testing your service, flexibility, and ability to meet their needs. The numbers don’t lie: according to NRF data, 84% of consumers say a smooth return experience encourages them to shop with the same retailer again.

For retailers, this means leaning into the return process as an opportunity to build trust.

Make your return policy crystal clear upfront—nothing frustrates customers more than hidden fees or complicated rules.

If you’re in e-commerce, invest in tools that make online returns painless, like pre-paid shipping labels or easy exchange portals. In-store? Train your staff to approach returns as a chance to offer solutions, whether it’s helping the customer find a better fit or suggesting an alternative product.

And don’t overlook sustainability. Holiday returns contribute significantly to waste, especially with items that can’t be resold. Consider options like donating gently used returns to charities or partnering with recycling programs to give unwanted products a second life.

The gifts that didn’t land in 2024 tell us a lot about what not to stock in 2025.

Overcomplicated gadgets, trend-driven items, and one-size-fits-none products often end up back in the warehouse. By learning from this year’s mistakes, you can fine-tune your inventory, target the right products, and set yourself up for fewer returns next season.

Returns aren’t just a cost—they’re a chance to turn a moment of disappointment into a long-term relationship. Play your cards right, and you’ll not only handle the post-Christmas chaos with ease but build a stronger, more loyal customer base for years to come for your Shopify store.